Beware of Greeks bearing gifts
Saturday 17 May 2014
Thursday 20 February 2014
With
their moves to try and block an Independent Scotland from sharing the pound,
the ‘No’ Campaign have thrown their last dice in the hope of scaring Scots into
voting against Independence, so what can we expect next?
First
of all, it's worth recalling what Alistair Darling, leader of the "Better
Together" campaign, said on 10 January 2013, namely –
“If
you have independence or separation of course a currency union is logical.”
Can
you ever trust a man who now says the very opposite?
Soon,
however, the charm offensive will begin.
But beware of Greeks bearing gifts. The unholy alliance of Tories and
Labour will cobble together a series of promises to try and woo the Scots into
voting ‘No’. I predict that this will be
a massive own goal, following on from the procession of scare stories and dirty
tricks which we have had to endure to date.
Whatever is promised, Westminster will move the goalposts (Let's not
forget the 1979 Referendum and the 40% rule).
I
believe that it is easy to predict what will happen if Scotland votes ‘No’. The Tories will feel that they have got Alex
Salmond and the ‘Yes’ campaign off their backs, and they will then proceed to
do what they have long wished to do with Scotland. To Scots it will seem like punishment for
daring to challenge London dominance.
First
to go will be the Barnett Formula. This
"secret" formula does partly take into account the fact that, per
capita, Scottish taxpayers pay more to the London Exchequer than do other parts
of the UK, but not quite. For example in
2011/2012, Scottish taxpayers paid £4.8 billion more to the London Exchequer
than Scotland got back according to the UK Government's own figures (GERS
Scotland figures for 2011/12 published in April 2013) which works out at every
single Scot, with Independence, being £824 better off. So whilst we are being cheated by the Barnett
Formula; after a ‘No’ vote, the formula will be scrapped in favour of straight
population based percentage. [1]
This
will result in a cut of at least £4 billion in the Scottish budget, on top of our
share of the £25 billion of cuts already promised by David Cameron after the
next Westminster election. There will
also be moves to claw back some of the powers given to the Scottish Parliament.
How
do I know this?
Having
spent my Civil Service career close to the seat of Westminster Government I continue
to have my ear close to the ground as to what is really going on, as you might
well imagine.
A
‘No’ vote will leave Scots bitter and disappointed and, apart from voting a few
more SNP MPs to Westminster, it will be too late to do much about it. Westminster
will be firmly in charge.
Thankfully,
however, I have faith that Scots are ‘nae daft’.
[1] Please see my subsequent blog "GERS Report 2012-13" for an update on the GERS figures.
See also: More blogs by John Jappy
[1] Please see my subsequent blog "GERS Report 2012-13" for an update on the GERS figures.
See also: More blogs by John Jappy
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